Here are 10 players who saw a significant change in ADP this week, according to the National Fantasy Football Championships (NFFC).
Should you tone down the hype or attack the value? Let’s look at this.
risers
Jalen Tolbert, WR, Dallas Cowboys
WR James Washington suffered a Jones fracture in training this week and will likely miss 10 weeks.
With amari cooper now in Cleveland and Michael Gallup likely to miss first two games, third-round pick Jalen TolbertADP has gone from 242 in May to 155 this week and may still show value there in a high-octane attack in Dallas.
Julio Jones, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
No surprise here. Jones went from being completely off the radar to signing with a team that threw for 5,229 yards and 43 passing touchdowns in 2021, leading the league with 307.6 passing yards per game. Oh and… Tom Brady.
Jones was going to pick 236 in May, but this week he drops out of the board at pick 162.
Russell Gage, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Despite signing Jones and chris godvin do not start the camp on the PUP list, Russell Gage keep climbing. It’s certainly well placed (see above), but the 87 pick could be a bit aggressive. I preferred the value I got in May to choice 116.
Cole Kmet, TE, Chicago Bears
The secret is revealed Cole Kmet. The tight end is a tough position, and Kmet needs to see positive regression from the TD. He’s one of my favorite picks at ADP. Kmet saw the second most targets in Chicago (93) behind only Darnell Mooney, and he had a better catch rate (64.5%) than Mooney (57.9). The fact that he had no touchdowns needs to change. Kmet went from pick 139 in May to 125 this week. In the 10th round, I’m still all in.
failures
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins
I guess tweets like these don’t really move the fantasy needle.
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There are justified concerns about Tua Tagovailoa‘s ability with the deep ball, despite his multitude of weapons. Tagavailoa’s average target depth (aDOT) ranked 34th in the NFL in 2021.
But with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki all ready, Tagovailoa may have fallen to a value I finally like now at pick 140. In May, shortly after Hill’s trade, Tagovailoa went to pick 117.
Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints
This one interests me. I don’t know why Kamara fell instead of going the other way after learning that the hearing for his impending suspension had been pushed back two months. This likely means Kamara will at least start the season, and possibly play the full season with the suspension pushed back to 2023. Two weeks ago we feared he would miss most of this season. With an ADP of 23, Kamara drops late in the second/early third round and likely presents some value. In May, Kamara dropped out of the pick 18 draw.
Elijah Mitchell, RB, San Francisco 49ers
The Niners have signed Deebo Samuel to a shiny new contract that includes bonuses for rushing yards and rushing thresholds, and Eli Mitchell’s ADP plummeted. It’s always hard to predict how 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan will use his running room, but last season he played against Mitchell when he was healthy. And yes, Mitchell still finished with nearly 1,000 yards in just 11 games played even with Deebo being Deebo. Mitchell goes to pick 62 this week after leaving the board at pick 50 earlier this summer. I like this value.
Antonio GIbson, RB, Washington Commanders
Antonio Gibson I predicted someone would go broke on their ADP last year, and it turned out to be true, but this year it went from pick 33 in May to pick 62 this week, and all of a sudden I starting to interest me.
Yes, they signed JD McKissic and that caps his cap. Yeah, they said they wanted to lighten Gibson’s load. No, none of those things are good, but Gibson had 10 double-digit PPR games last year and finished with 1,331 all-around yards and 10 touchdowns. It’s a decent option at a position with a lot of turnover, and if it continues to drop, it’s worth adding.
Kenneth Walker, III, RB, Seattle Seahawks
Despite the announcement that Chris Carson will retire, Walker, who was going to pick 77 just a few weeks ago, fell to pick 93. Meanwhile, Rashad PennyThe ADP of stayed exactly the same, at pick 88. If you think the Seahawks will lead the rookie down the stretch, that’s a decent value. Just keep in mind for PPR leagues that the Seahawks have targeted their running backs the least of any team in 2021.
Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Chris Godwin commanded a 21% target share in Tampa Bay before his injury in Week 15 last season, and he finished as WR8 on a points-per-game basis. Now, despite not being placed on the PUP roster to start camp, Godwin has gone from pick 52 in May to 60 this week. Sure, they might bring it in slowly, but we knew that in May. Are Julio Jones and Russell Gage such a big threat to Godwin? Looks like the fantasy managers are concerned, but I’m not, especially if Godwin keeps falling.
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